The small cap sector has tended to find strength around the turn of the month. Prices usually make a low five days before month end and rise until two days after month end. On average the market has risen 69.5% of the time between day 5 and day -2. The average gain has been 1.23%. However, the average gain in an up period is 2.80%, while the average loss in a down period is 2.36%. It should be noted that in recent months the rally has become much less reliable. Prices have been down three out of the last tour months and have not traded well during the recent credit crisis.

The Russell 2000 futures closed at 755 on Friday. This is the reference point for the turn pattern.

Insider selling at S&P 500 companies is starting to fade away post the earnings season. Selling was heavy in November after companies stated earnings and black out periods ended.

Crude oil opened -$0.13, heating oil +0.28 cents, and gasoline -1.45 cents. Energies weakened shortly before the opening, following a generally higher overnight trade. Traders used colder weather in the Northeast U.S. as the reason to push prices higher overnight. Overnight support also came from some application of carry trades, but those trades tended to weaken as the U.S. opening approached. Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit reported that OPEC seaborne exports ex-Angola fell 340,000 b/d through the first two weeks of Nov.

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