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Let's Gain - The Professional Signals Provider - Signals, Trading Systems, Technical Analysis

Tuesday
Jan 06th
Awaiting Fed

interest_rates.jpgEconomic data will continue to be scrutinized as investors try to determine what the awareness of the Federal Reserve is regarding the economy. Investors are angling for a half-point cut following its emergency three-quarter-point cut last week.

The Fed's coming up rate decision is obviously the market's focus this week, so trading will be marked by investors' conjectures about policymakers' thoughts on the weak economy. With a decision not expected until Wednesday afternoon, the market in the meantime digested Tuesday's data on earnings, consumer spending and durable goods.

In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 49.27, or 0.40 %, to 12,433.16.

Broader indexes were mixed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.86, or 0.29 %, to 1,357.82, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 3.37, or 0.14 %, to 2,346.54.

The dollar was mixed against most major currencies except the yen, and gold prices rose.

Oil prices moved higher as traders waited to see what the Fed's next move will be. A barrel of light sweet crude fell 11 cents to $90.88 a barrel on the NYMEX.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 3.34, or 0.48 %, to 699.05.

In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei stock average rose 2.99 %; Shanghai's key index rose 0.87 %; and Hong Kong's main index rose 0.99 %. In European trading, London's FTSE rose 1.30 %; Frankfurt's DAX rose 1.31 %; and Paris' CAC rose 1.83 %.



Euro Lower Against Dollar

euro_dollar.jpgThe dollar traded as low as 106.87 Japanese yen before recovering to 107.30 yen during yesterday's session.

The euro lower against the dollar today as markets were waiting for a speech by FED Chairman Ben Bernanke that could give information about further U.S. rate cuts. Euro bought $1.4649 in morning European trading while the British pound was at $1.9642.

Bernanke is scheduled to address the U.S. Congress' House Budget committee about the economy today, with analysts and markets looking for insights into what might be done to help the economy recover from the effects of a credit crisis.

Wall Street is expecting additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The U.S. central bank has been cutting rates three times to 4.25 percent recently.

Lower interest rates can push a country's economy but may have bad effects on its currency as traders transfer money to countries where they can earn higher returns.



Fed slashes rates
A shock three-quarters of a percentage point reduction.  Analyst Jeremy Stretch of Rabobank, described the Fed's move as "a sign of panic".
bernanke.jpgThe US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to 3.5%. A day after global markets sank due to worries of a possible U.S. recession, the Federal Reserve Bank decided to reduce the risk of further economic problems by a three-quarter point cut interest rate before U.S. markets opened.
 
The Fed's interest move came as a complete surprise. It was the first time since the days following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 that the committee had called an emergency meeting. Stocks rebounded with most European indexes closing higher, while Wall Street regained some ground. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points at the start of trading.
 
 What if, after the Bernanke bounce, stock markets continue to fall?


Free Fall
Panic Selling: Wide-scale selling of an investment, causing a sharp decline in price. In most instances of panic selling, investors just want to get out of the investment, with little regard for the price at which they sell. (www.investopedia.com)
 
free_fall.jpg
The market showed a huge sign of weakness during today's session, increasing concerns on a global economic slowdown, company defaults and credit rating cuts.
 
The panic selling show is on but when will it stop? It is difficult to define a clear endpoint because this huge speculation could last long if the policy makers do not implement soon what is in their minds. Worldwide indexes lost today a 5% average of their value while the US was trying to enjoy its Martin Luther King holiday despite its regression's concerns.
 
Total traded volume was higher than the average of last week even if many US investors were supposed to have their PCs off. Maybe the investment community has waited today for a decreased number of players to shock the market and urge some reactions from central banks. We do not think that this reaction will be prompt because policy makers still do not know what to do. ECB in particular is forced to cut its interest rates to contain the decline in financial markets.
 
On the other side, Trichet has to fight against an inflation that will average 2.5 percent in 2008 and Unions increasing salaries and then spending powers. ECB will take its time to make its decision on 30th January when we will not assist to an endpoint of the free fall but only a decrease in volatility.


Gold hits record
gold.jpgGold touched a historic high above $910 an ounce, due to a general sentiment to buy the metal on further weakness in the dollar and expectations of a cut in U.S. interest rates.

Some investors decided to take profits in the afternoon, despite the rally doens't seem to stop. Prices have jumped 50 percent in the past year, and 15 percent in the last 30 days.
 
From a technical perspective, a close above $900 that would be seen as a bullish sign. But fundamentally, we are very cautious and would not suggest to go long now. There is a risk of $50 dollar correction at any time.





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